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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."