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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest upset.

However the current field is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and fun season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still